Bitcoin Riddle

I was listening to a video by the Austrian Bitcoiner “Gigi”. He mentioned a riddle it goes like this:

If the last block was mined 9 minutes ago, when will the next one come in?

He the answer was not 1 min, but 10 mins. Always 10 mins.

He said to say 1 minute is an example of the gambler’s fallacy.

I’m not sure I agree with him, as from my understanding there are a finite number of nonces.

If the total number of nonces is x, then surely the probability of finding the block increases as you hash more? At the beginning, it would be 1/x, then 1/x-1, then 1/x-2.

I’m no expert in statistics but I don’t see how this is analgous to the gambler’s fallacy.

Could someone with greater knowledge please confirm?


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